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In the Trenches: Random rants, musings and media tales about the US writers' strike

Having fewer pilots in the pipeline, thanks to the strike and last week's cancellation by Hollywood studios of many writers' contracts, will almost certainly accelerate ad rates for next season's programming, says Scott Stewart, a director at Toronto-based Genesis Vizeum

How is the strike affecting your buying activities?

"The impact on our day-to-day activities has been minimal. Some adjustments are being made to ensure client investment is sound and delivered, but we are not really experiencing anything out of the ordinary. Looking forward (i.e., February onwards), we will be required to revise buys that will include un-projected, non-original programming vs. what was originally bought to ensure compensation is accurate.

"Our biggest concern is not necessarily if audiences and GRPs will post as bought (networks have promised make-goods and ensured delivery as bought), but audience engagement."

Why?

"Because compensation doesn't exist for a brand-new episode of CSI or Criminal Minds, and replacing audience numbers mathematically and without equivalent programming just isn't comparable. We know this from what we experienced during the 2004-05 NHL lock-out. Our relevant audience didn't go elsewhere - they simply disappeared."

Are you revising media plans at this time?

"Currently, no. But we are considering other planning elements or media choices to account for reduced 'engagement' quotient to make up for a softer TV climate as early as summer.

"Are we shifting investment earmarked for dramas and comedies to sports and reality? Absolutely. Demand for fresh reality and alternative programming is going to be hyper-accelerated the longer the strike continues, and we have already reacted. That said, we have to secure the best available, first-run or high-profile programming on our clients' behalf."

Are there other alternative opportunities you're focusing on?

"We are considering other alternatives to provide additional support to plans in the event the strike dramatically affects the long-term outlook (i.e., fall 2008 and beyond). But no plans for traditional advertisers have been made to resign television in favour of other mediums. That would be impulsive.

"But it is safe to predict that the upcoming fall 2008 upfronts will be a vast indicator as to whether it will be necessary to create viable investment options."

How far ahead are we Plan B-ing for?

"The situation is still touch and go, but things are relatively status quo. We believe that successful reality TV franchises such as American Idol, [Celebrity] Apprentice, America's Next Top Model, Amazing Race and Survivor will continue to toe the corporate network lines for the spring '08 lineup and demonstrate equivalent numbers to top scripted programs.

"We feel that this, and profit margins being greater for the networks with reality programming, will force the WGA's hand and that they will come to terms, just like in the previous strike in 1988. The previous strike lasted 21 weeks. Based on a comparable time line, our assumptions are that:

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